Last week we were alerted to the talk given in Guildford by peak oil expert Chris Skrebowski.
Chris has spent the last 38 years working in and around the oil industry, including as a long range planner for BP and as a market analyst for the Saudi oil ministry in London. He started out as a peak oil sceptic, but now puts the peak at no later than 2015.
His final two slides:
My conclusions at very best:
> Supply will tighten the moment economic recovery occurs
> Much depends on Opec’s use of its spare capacity of roughly 5mn b/d
> Much depends on Opec’s oil price ambitions
> Rapid oil price rises would threaten economic recovery
> Oil supply will most likely peak in 2014/15 at under 92 million barrels/day
> There could be supply shortfalls in winter before Peak
> Oil supply in international trade will peak earlier than the oil production peak [emphasis added]
> We remain reluctant to face up to Peak Oil
> There are huge challenges and huge opportunities
There is hope:
> The world will not stop turning after Peak Oil
> The world will need to find smart solutions to the problems it previously solved with cheap oil
> More engineers, scientists and creative thinkers will be needed than ever before.
> Solutions exist already to meet many of these challenges
> Key solutions are electrification of surface transport, biofuels, biogas and massive improvements in efficiency.
> “The future is already here. It’s just not very evenly distributed.” – William Gibson
You can download a copy of his full presentation here.