Quick update on peak oil

David sent me this recent blog from Australia, reporting the sixth ASPO Peak Oil conference in Washington (October 2010).

It summarises the current situation saying that “We face a liquid fuel crisis in two to five years… Last time [1970s] the crises resolved themselves as oil production and trade were resumed. This time, there will not be enough oil to resume business as usual. Despite a decrease in demand from OECD countries, overall demand continues to rise as global population climbs inexorably from 6.8 towards 9.2 billion and newly emerging economies expect their share of the global resource pie. Come 2015, however, we can anticipate a significant increase in the price of oil as global production starts its inevitable decline. Production of regular or conventional oil has already peaked while supplies of unconventional oil – heavy, deepwater and Arctic oil – will peak within a few years.”

This is in line with Richard Branson’s prediction (and the prediction of the Industry Taskforce on Peak Oil and Energy Security from February 2010. Branson says he thinks it will hit “within five years”.

The point is that the sooner we act, the easier it will be. The age of cheap oil is already over. We need to leave oil before it leaves us.

It is no longer a question of “If” peak oil is real, or even of “When?” — but instead “What can we do to prepare?”

I’ve added this also to the Peak Oil page.

 

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